Monday, June 30, 2008

Inflation jumps



It may be time to adjust your budgets. I'm noticing a change in my bank accounts - are you?

AP: Inflation rate jumps highest in six months
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON - The inflation rate shot up in May at the fastest pace in six months, pushed higher by soaring costs for gasoline and other types of energy.

Read the full article here.

Along the same lines, I read something yesterday on "stagflation." Can anyone explain that concept?


Saturday, June 28, 2008

Hit It Where They Ain't



The stock market likes to go against conventional wisdom. This article from Marketminder.com explains why the 'experts' are most often wrong in their predictions.





Groundhog Day 2008



12/18/2007





The close of each year stirs an instinctual phenomenon in the professional finance world. Like premature Punxsutawney Phils, investment institutions scramble forth from the warmth of their Bloomberg machines to forecast the climate of the upcoming calendar year.




This barrage of forecasts each year end is explained by behaviorism’s theory of order preference – an insistence on certain things in a certain order for little purpose other than societal convention. Why not forecast every 24 months instead of 12? Or each April instead of December?




In truth, a calendar year’s end means little to stocks. Markets go on—milestones like months and years are delineations of the mind and little more. But still, most investors engage in the prognostic ritual each December. In the next weeks you’ll hear many big-name gurus squawk (or should that be squeak?) their forecasts.




Of course, forecasting is a necessary thing for successful investing. If you don’t have some idea about where markets are headed, then beating the market is significantly tougher (if not near impossible.)




Most forecasters—even the gurus—fall wide of the mark. That’s because the factors driving most forecasts are usually derived from widely available information, are already broadly known, and therefore priced into the market. If there’s one thing we know is true, it’s that you have to know something others don’t to beat the market.




Still, paying close attention to what the gurus forecast is important. Why? Because a lot of folks look at them! So that means what they’re predicting becomes widely known—the antithesis of information that can beat the markets. So you’ve got to know what others are pricing in today to even have a shot at beating the market later.




As always, we advise critical thinking on these matters and to eschew herd behavior. After all, it’s been proven time and again that most stock market gurus with verifiable track records are wrong more than they’re right—making them about on par with good ol’ Punxsutawney Phil, who’s shadow detection technique of discerning spring’s arrival is right well less than 50% of the time.


Friday, June 27, 2008

House Flipping In The Real World-Part 7-Doing The Numbers



As they say at NPR, when we do the numbers we find that, well, it depends on how you do the numbers. Analysis is in the eye of the beholder. Just ask any finance guy told to justify the corporate jet. I prefer, with a few twists, to do the cash in, cash out method so here goes.



The HUD asking price was $39,900. I got it for $27,000 after some long negotiations. Dealing with HUD is tricky so a realtor that specializes in this is important. HUD picks the realtor and the realtor cannot opine on a bid but they will do so in code. "They may have an issue with this" means too low. "Perhaps in the ballpark" means you got it. Anyway, as I said before, you make money when you buy the house, not when you sell it.



Here are the cash flows (Sorry about the numbers going all over the place, programming ignorance):



Money out



Purchase Price $27,000



Maintenance/Repair 3,400



Property Taxes 3 Years 3,600



Insurance 600



Freddy and Celia Closing Costs 3,500



Foreclosure Legal Fees 750



Back Taxes and Penalties 3,000



Patricia Sale Closing Costs 500



Total Out 42,350





Money In



Rent $16,275



Freddy/Celia Mortgage Payments 7,920



Patricia Sale Proceeds 49,000



Total In 73,195



ROI = Cash In minus Cash Out divided by Cash Out=$73,195-$42,350=$30,845 divided by $42,350=72.8%. Not too shabby, at first glance. I held the property for 4.5 years so the annual return is 72.8% divided by 4.5 years equals 16.2%.



At this point, any analyst out there worth anything should be shouting "Wrong, wrong." And they would be right. You can't divide 72.8% by 4.5 years because it ignores the time value of money and a few other things but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.



There is a more glaring error. There is no expense in there for me but let's not quibble.



Let's do look at what is in there--The cost to renovate the house was only $3,400 because I did most of the work myself. It was a controllable variable. Uncontrollable variables are property taxes and penalties ($7,600), insurance ($600), closing costs ($4,000) and legal fees ($750). Actually, closing costs can be reduced significantly by avoiding real estate agents as I did with Patricia but it ain't a done deal yet so an agent still may be necessary.



What ate up a large amount of cash was FEES and you cannot avoid them but most people forget about them. If you invest in real estate, don't forget them.



BUT we still haven't come up with the most GLARING error in the analysis. The Donald and Co. would say "Don't do it this way. Use OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY." Let's try that. You put 20% down and borrow the rest for repairs and everything else at 10%. So that is $5,400 for the downpayment and $15,350 for everything else and 4.5 years of interest payments=$31,899 plus the interest not paid you for the downpayment but let's not split hairs. Income of $73,195 minus expenses of $31,899 generates a return of $41,296 divided by $31,899 for a return of 129%, or an annual return of 29% doing it my way.



Not bad. In fact, great. The Donald is vindicated except for the fact that OPM is based on the assumption the OP are either idiots or charities because...



Who is going to lend you this money? Not HUD. Oh, there may be a government program out there that will lend you the money but I don't know about it and I wouldn't qualify. Maybe you would but I doubt it. Will a bank lend it? Lend $31,899 for a property worth currently, maybe $27,000? Remember OPM assumes you can borrow just about everything. I don't think so. Maybe Mom and Dad will lend it. Give it a try. Or private individuals may lend it but they will charge a lot more interest and take a lot more of the profits.



Please feel free to take a whack at the analysis or come up with a better one. I'm going to send this to a friend that is much better at finance than me so we will see what he has to say. For now my head is spinning and I probably made some major mistake BUT no matter how you do it you will come up with the same conclusion--yes, you can make money in real estate but it isn't as easy or painless as the guys on TV would have you believe.



Wednesday, June 25, 2008

A store-free shopping season?



Due to geographical constraints, Mr. Dimes and I are planning on avoiding brick-and-mortar stores as much as humanly possible this holiday season. Instead, we're going to be purchasing all gifts online and shipping them to the intended recipients. The lone exception to this rule will be going to stores to shop for one another. Hopefully we'll have success with this plan. There are several reasons for doing this:
  • We live in a geographic black hole with few well-respected retail outlets. The nearest good bookstore is 20 miles away, and it's an hour drive to a decent mall. Anything of higher quality than Sears or Target can offer will have to be purchased at an online retailer anyway, so why not shop for everything with one?
  • We simply can't afford to go and visit the family this year. We live too far away, and round trip holiday airfare will set us back at least $1500. It would be twice as much if we went to visit both sides of the family.
  • Even if we did travel to see them, do you know what a tremendous pain it is to try and get gifts through security? You can't travel with wrapped packages, and while checked bags are routinely pilfered, it gets worse right around the holidays. I would think it would be highly likely that any gift in its original packaging would be more likely to find its way onto eBay than under my in-laws Christmas tree.
  • Who likes to go shopping anyway? Too many obnoxious shoppers, picked-over merchandise, and endless loops of the Trans-Siberian Orchestra are enough to drive me into a frenzy. Toss in some obnoxious perfume or an indecisive husband and I'd happily rather take the whole thing online. Besides, it's a LOT easier to track spending when you don't have to schlep receipts and merchandise all over the mall.
I used to be a big fan of gift cards until it occurred to me that their purchase just passes the task of shopping from the giver to the recipient. That's not very nice! I'm going out of my way to try and avoid them this year, and I hope not to receive too many unless they can be used online, since they won't be easy to redeem.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Construction Update



The main part of the construction is finally done. There’s one minor problem to fix, but it still renders my apartment unusable at the moment. (Sort of.)


I asked my contractor to retain my original tub because of an art deco detailing that matches the building’s exterior. I had him reglaze the surface so I could keep it. Doing that costs about $400 whereas a new tub would have been $200 + installation. To me, that’s about equivalent pricing with the added non-monetary benefit of pleasing my aesthetics.


Unfortunately, my contractor didn’t have a whole lot of experience with glazing. He hired an excellent glazer through his business partner who had used this glazer on other projects. The tub looked great when I first saw the work. It was awesome and I knew I had made the right decision.


However, my contractor told me on Tuesday that it would take 24 hours to set and then about 72 hours to cure, so I wouldn’t be able to shower in it till Friday. There were just a few more things to do like hang a towel bar and clean the work area and everything would be done. That was fine with me.


I get a call on Wednesday evening. The contractor has made a boo boo. He misunderstood the glazer. Nothing should have touched the tub for 72 hours at all. Because the contractor thought 24 hours was enough, he laid a canvas drop cloth in the tub so he could step in it and put in the plumbing fixtures. He had inadvertently marred the surface with the texture of the cloth. OOPS.


The glazer said he can’t fix this for at least a week because you can’t lay another layer of glaze down for 7 days after the first application. While I can use the tub over the weekend, it’s not perfect. So really, I’m not going to be able to move back in till June 21st after the reglazing is fully cured. YIKES. That makes it nearly 2 months since I started the project which should have taken 10-15 days.


At least I am only eating the cost of the extra labor for the surprise concrete under the waist-high tile backsplash on a spot of the walls that didn’t need tile. Yes, I went overbudget, but only by $300, less than 10% of the total estimate. And I saved a little money by buying less tile overall.


I will do an inspection over the weekend and hopefully cut a check for final payment next week. Then I will be able to move back in! YAY!



Saturday, June 21, 2008

Friday, June 20, 2008

How To Flub A Job Interview--Follow This Advice



Personal finance columns drive me up a wall. Here is a doozy of bad advice. We'll take it point by point.



Five Ways to Flub a Job Interview



by Penelope Trunk